Baylor Basketball Season Predictions

A new season dawns. Or, we might all see dawn before the first game of the season is over. I’m personally very excited to go to bed at 2am.

To inaugurate the season, here are some very specific predictions that are guaranteed to come true. That’s how predictions work, after all. Win totals, stat lines, and Tourney Talk.

Scoring Leaders

Last season, no Bear averaged 15+ points per game. Ja’Kobe Walter led the team in scoring with 14.5. For a top tier offense, that is a bit surprising. To balance, though, there were six Bears that averaged 10+ points.

This season, there will be three Bears averaging 15+ points a game, and Norchad Omier will be the team leader. Jeremy Roach and VJ Edgecombe will be right behind him. Jayden Nunn and Langston Love will join in the 10+ point club. Jalen Celestine has potential to break that barrier, as well, but I don’t think the shot attempts will be there for him.

Big 12 Top Finishers

Predicted final standings in the Big 12:

1) Houston (23-8, 14-6)

2) Iowa State (21-8, 13-7)

3T) Baylor (20-10, 12-8)

3T) Arizona (20-9, 12-8)

5) Texas Tech (21-9, 11-9)

(Have I mentioned that I think Kansas is not as great as everyone seems to think? Bonus prediction: Hunter Dickinson, the only unanimous pre-season All Big 12 selection, will finish on the second team behind Omier and Coleman Hawkins, who take the two front court spots on the first team.)

Tournament Tribulations

• Baylor will reach the Elite Eight but will lose a second time this season to UConn, failing to reach the Final Four but getting to the second weekend for the first time since 2021.

• Final Four is UConn vs Gonzaga, Auburn vs Houston. Houston beats Gonzaga

KenPom Ranking Battles

Going to the godfather of college basketball analytics is a nice way to compare the quality of one team against another without falling sway to the whims of shooting luck. Here are some predictions about where some teams will finish in the ratings.

• Baylor is top 3 in offense but not top 40 on defense

• Texas Tech over Jayhawks, who fall out of the KenPom top 25 for the second year in a row, a first under Bill Self

• No B1G team in the KenPom top 20

• Big 12 takes the top KenPom spot a 4th season in a row, edging out the SEC

For the Road

Edgecombe makes a weekly appearance in ESPN’s Top 10 all season long. I feel pretty good about not getting called out if this one doesn’t hit. No one watches Sportscenter any more.

For Tonight

Bears Beat Bulldogs 80-78. Like Jed, I think Omier is going to bludgeon the Zags inside all night on the glass. He has a 20-point double-double on the way.

Thank goodness nothing ever comes back around on the internet.