Matchup: No. 8 Baylor Bears @ No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Time: Monday, November 4, 2024, @ 10:30 PM CT

Place: Spokane Arena, Spokane, Washington

Where to Watch: ESPN2

Big Picture

This rematch of the 2021 national title game will serve as a night cap for the opening day of the men’s college basketball season. Gonzaga enters the new season after losing in the Sweet Sixteen a year ago to the eventual national runners-up, Purdue. It was the program’s 13th consecutive season making at least the second weekend of the tournament.

In terms of roster turnover, the Zags bring back 6 of their 7 players who appeared in all 35 games last season, including 3 guys who started every game. They will be without Anton Watson who was the team’s 2nd leading scorer and rebounder and who also led the team in steals. Watson, a versatile wing, ran out of eligibility after winning over 130 career games with Gonzaga. They also lost a few bench players to the transfer portal. That means that they bring back over 80% of both their scoring and minutes played from last season. That type of roster continuity is extremely rare in the era of the transfer portal and one-and-done players. For comparison, Baylor only brings back roughly 30% of their scoring production and minutes played from last year. To replace their minimal losses to the transfer portal, they brought in a trio of transfers headlined by Michael Ajayi and Khalif Battle (more on both below). 

This season will mark Gonzaga’s penultimate campaign in the West Coast Conference before joining the new-look Pacific Athletic Conference for the 2026-27 season. Last season was the first time since 2012 that Gonzaga didn’t at least own a share of the WCC regular season championship. Mark Few and the Zags are still looking to get over the hump and win it all. Their path begins with as big of a challenge as they’ll face in their entire regular season schedule.

Meanwhile, Baylor will be looking to get back to competing for Big 12 titles and make it back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since the title run in 2021. They’ll lean on newcomers, VJ Edgecombe, Jeremy Roach, Norchad Omier, Jalen Celestine, and Jason Asemota.

Zags’ Strengths

• Offensive balance and versatility. Gonzaga has finished in the top 5 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom) in each of the last 6 seasons and is poised to be elite at putting the ball in the bucket once again.

• Experience. Not only does this roster have tremendous continuity (as mentioned above) which bodes well for the team’s early-season chemistry, it also boasts a ton of experience. All of their projected starters are in at least their 4th season of collegiate eligibility. Don’t expect this team to beat itself.

Zags’ Weaknesses

• Rim Protection. While Gonzaga does have a trio of talented big men, none of them are particularly adept at defending the rim. This could become problematic against a team like Baylor which features several freakishly athletic dunkers like Edgecombe and Omier.

• Turnovers. Gonzaga’s team is built around a fast-paced, free-flowing offense. This leads to a lot of scoring and is tough to matchup with. However, it does sometimes lead to excessive turnovers, especially when facing a team like Baylor who has the athleticism and size to disrupt the flow of the Bulldogs.

Players to Watch

Ryan Nembhard (Guard, No. 0, Senior, 6’0” 180 lbs.): Career Stats: 12.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 5.4 APG, and 1.0 SPG in 99 games (all starts; 35.8 MPG) on 43/33/48 splits. The former Creighton transfer enters his second season with the Bulldogs after leading the team (and WCC) in assists and minutes played per game. He is an explosive player who made great strides as a facilitator last season under Mark Few’s tutelage. Baylor fans might remember that Nembhard went off for 30 points in the Bears’ loss to Creighton in the 2nd round of the Big Dance 2 seasons ago.

Nolan Hickman (Guard, No. 11, Senior, 6’2” 190 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats: 14.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG, and 2.7 APG in 35 games played (all starts; 35.3 MPG) on 47/41/88 splits. The former 4-star prospect was part of the same recruiting class as Chet Holmgren. Despite starting 36 games as a sophomore, last season was the true coming out party for the Utah native. He accounted for nearly a third of the team’s total made three-pointers and is the only returning player to have shot over 38% from deep last season.

Khalif Battle (Guard, No. 99, Super Senior, 6’5” 190 lbs.): Last 4 Seasons’ Stats (with Temple and Arkansas): 16.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 1.6 APG in 77 games played (32 starts; 29.0 MPG) on 41/36/87 splits. The New Jersey native is entering his 6th (and presumably final) season of collegiate eligibility and his first with what is now his 4th team (after stints with Butler, Temple, and Arkansas). He is a three-level scorer who seemed to struggle adjusting to the increased athleticism and physicality in the SEC last season.

Michael Ajayi (Forward, No. 1, Senior, 6’7” 230 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats (with Pepperdine): 17.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 1.9 APG in 33 games played (all starts; 34.7 MPG) on 47/47/71 splits. The former JUCO transfer led the WCC in scoring last season, his first as a Division I player. Ajayi has great length, leading to a lot of thunderous finishes at the rim. He’s also a capable catch-and-shoot guy from the perimeter and a solid rebounder.

Graham Ike (Center, No. 13, Redshirt Senior, 6’9” 250 lbs.): Career Stats: 16.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.1 APG in 80 games played) 75 starts; 26.8 MPG) on 56/NA/56 splits. The former Wyoming transfer enters his 2nd season with Gonzaga after leading the team in scoring and rebounding last year. He gives them a stout presence in the paint while also having the ability to switch onto smaller players, when needed.

Ben Gregg (Center, No. 33, Super Senior, 6’10” 230 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats: 9.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.7 BPG in 35 games played (19 starts; 23.6 MPG) on 54/38/73 splits. Gregg started the team’s final 19 games last season after coming off the bench in the early part of the team’s schedule. Given the explosive scorers added out of the transfer portal, it is unclear whether Gregg will begin this campaign as part of the starting lineup or as a rotational piece. The Oregon native led the team in blocked shots last year and was also 2nd on the team in made three-pointers on above-average efficiency. He is yet another versatile big man that Baylor will have to account for in this game.

Braden Huff (Center, No. 34, Redshirt Sophomore, 6’10” 250 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats: 9.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 0.7 BPG in 35 games played (no starts; 13.5 MPG) on 60/34/55 splits. The former 4-star prospect served as a highly productive backup big as a redshirt freshman last season, appearing in all 35 games and leading the team (and WCC) in 2P%. He was also the team’s most efficient shot blocker last season. Over a quarter of his shot attempts as a freshman were from beyond the arc and he converted those at a very high clip considering his size.

Dusty Stromer (Guard, No. 4, Sophomore, 6’6” 200 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats: 4.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 1.1 APG in 35 games played (15 starts; 23.5 MPG) on 37/36/81 splits. The former 4-star prospect started 15 of the teams first 16 games last season before being moved to the bench. The move seemed to improve his scoring efficiency (albeit on lower volume), shooting over 41% from both the field and from deep over the team’s final 19 games.

Predictions

Keys to the Game

• Weather the Storm. We are going to be on the road, as the lower-ranked, younger, and less experienced team. I would expect that the Bears may fall behind early. It’s important that they don’t let the game get out of hand or spiral out of control.

• Rotate! This isn’t the type of opponent where you can give too much attention to any one threat. They have too many scoring options to excessively double-team and help off of capable shooters. Playing fundamentally sound, disciplined defense is the only way Baylor has a shot in this one.

Player of the Game: Norchad Omier outshines fellow newcomers, Edgcombe and Roach, en route to a dominant performance. I expect to see all of his tools and abilities on full display, right out of the gate. Hopefully, I’m not setting myself up for disappointment.

Final Score: Baylor wins 76-72. I’m going to be honest with y’all, Baylor is going to lose some games this season. Between a brutal non-conference slate and then the meatgrinder that is the Big 12, the likelihood of making it to March unscathed is virtually nonexistent. Still, there’s something about this year’s team that feels sort of special. It feels like they might have the pieces they need to compete for championships this season. Only time will tell on all that. Either way, I think they come out on top to open the season in a tightly contested battle between 2 of college basketball’s premier programs. Sic Em!