Few words can properly explain the feelings one experiences while watching the 2024 Baylor Bears. On the one hand, you’d think any football would be more pleasant to watch than the blowouts we became accustomed to in 2023, but somehow Baylor playing juuuust close enough to convince me they are good yet still losing in a heartbreaker is 100x worse. The Colorado game was lost because… well, we know why. BYU was mainly lost because of injuries, team discipline, and a disaster in the first quarter. Questions about Dave aside; in a vacuum, this team isn’t a bad football team, but a team that is one big game from figuring things out. Is this week that game? Here are 3 areas Baylor needs to succeed in to secure a ranked upset on the road.

1) Let Sawyer Cook

Even as an “establish the run” enthusiast, I believe it is time to accept a true offensive identity and forget the inside zone scheme Spavital has been desperately repeating to no avail. To put it bluntly, our run game reminds me of my High School team, and we won 2 games my senior year. Last week was our best offensive performance so far this year (387 yards), and we had 34 RB rushing yards. 34 YARDS on 16 carries. For you math nerds, that’s 2.125 yards per carry. The O-line has no push and our running backs cannot seem to find space. These numbers were good for a sub-20% success rate whenever Sawyer did not touch the ball. When Sawyer passed or ran it himself, Baylor had a 48% success rate, which is easily top-25 in the nation. Could Baylor continue to hope we somehow break out on the ground? Possibly, but it would kill a ridiculous amount of drives, as it already has. As former Baylor WR Chris Platt said on X “It’s not the formation it’s the personnel” regarding running a draw play out of the shotgun on 3rd & 8. Chris is exactly right, the scheme is fantastic but Baylor simply does not have the OL talent to execute it, and pretending we do will damage any offensive confidence built up throughout this game. Baylor shouldn’t abandon the run, but we should instead stop trying to beat the dead horse of the inside zone and create new ways to get Bryson Washington the ball.

2) Start Playing Football before the 2nd Quarter

It’s no secret that Baylor starts very, very slow. Dave’s team has been outscored by 35 in the 1st quarter against Big 12 teams; that’s pretty bad. If the 1st quarter was NEVER invented, Baylor would be 5-0! Instead, we are 2-3 with 2 heartbreakers to our name so far. The good news for the few hopefuls remaining is that Iowa State is just as bad if not worse in the entire first half. Here are their offensive outputs through 2 quarters against Power 5 teams: Against Houston (lol) they scored 3 points and against Iowa they were shut out. Iowa State has won games relying on the ineptitude of the other offense and the opposing defense being worn out. Hope for the Bears here is not unwarranted, Dave Aranda has shown to be one of the best (if not the best) halftime scheme-adjusting coaches in the country, and this Baylor offensive just put up 28 points on an incredible BYU defense. Iowa State has simply not shown the offensive firepower to be worthy of the #16 ranking in the land and is very vulnerable against an unpredictable team like Baylor. What has been our weakness, not having an offensive identity, may now become our strength with a strong first quarter in Ames. I’ve been saying this for 4 weeks now, but if you see a clean first 15 minutes… WATCH OUT.

3) Win the even box on D

Don’t get me wrong, Iowa State does have some weapons. Senior WR duo Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are very precise route runners and have an incredible feel for zone-heavy defenses. Higgins has scored a TD in each game this year and takes the top off of defenses in the way we saw Darius Lassiter make big catches for BYU. Though ISU has a talented passing attack led by QB Rocco Becht, it can only be fully unleashed once the opponent has to pull an extra Linebacker out of coverage to deal with Soph. RB Abu Sama gaining steam later in the game, hence ISU’s offensive numbers stalling until the 3rd or 4th quarters. Baylor has to win matchups on the DL and on the Edge, especially with the return of Garmon Randolph (injury) and Steve Linton (discipline) returning to the field today. Iowa State has not shown the ability to have success when the opposing Defense wins without extra pressure in the box. I see the potential for an upset here, book it!