Week 3 Preview: Baylor vs Air Force

After a tough week 2 in Salt Lake City, the Bears will be looking to get back into the win column before they hit conference play, taking on the Air Force Falcons this Saturday at McLane Stadium. The game will offer the debut of Baylor’s new Anthracite uniforms, and the crowd is encouraged to show up in black. These new uniforms came as a part of the first refresh to Baylor’s uniforms since the school overhauled all of athletics into a uniform look and color scheme. The black threads that fans have been begging for are finally here, but will the new look be enough to fuel revenge for the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl?

Anyone who watched that sub-zero match-up can expect to see the same scheme and style from the Falcons. Air Force is lead by coach Troy Calhoun, a stalwart who is in his 18^th season at the helm of the team. He’s their second winningest coach of all time, behind only CFB Hall of Famer Fisher DeBerry. Calhoun has managed a very respectable 131-83 at the school. Maintaining a winning record at a service academy in the modern era of college football is no small task.

Calhoun runs a flexbone-based option at Air Force, a less common scheme run by the service academies as a way to level the playing field against teams who have a much larger candidate pool to recruit from. The triple option isn’t something teams see often, it’s not something defenses have time to prepare for, and in the modern age of “air yards and depth of target”, it’s disappearing more and more even from the high school ranks. A perfect style for players who’s true focus day-to-day is on the rigor and compliance required to be a student at a service academy. Baylor will be facing a unique opponent, and defensively the Bears will need to be focused and willing to trust their scheme to prevent the multiple threats the from the option to cause too much damage.

While Air Force is run by the same man, using the same scheme, as we saw in that 2022 bowl game, the team is certainly not at same level performance-wise. That was a 10-win team that averaged over 300 yards per game on the ground and only surrendered more than 20 points once all season. This season, the Falcons return precisely one (1) (uno) (“wun”) offensive starter.

The 2024 version is off to a more rocky start. The Falcons sit at 1-1, their victory coming against Merrimack, and FCS Independent. Air Force won, at home, 21-6. To compare, Merrimack played UConn this past weekend, the same UConn who opened the season with a 50-7 loss against Maryland, and lost 63-17. It didn’t get much better for Air Force in week 2, as they lost at home 17-7 to San Jose State.

Defensively, they did look pretty good. AF only allowed SJSU to rush for 50 yards on 34 attempts, 1.5 yards per carry. They also limited SJSU to a 50% completion rate and did force an interception.

The issue? They still allowed 262 yards and 2 TDs through the air to a San Jose team that only has one real pass catching weapon.

The Air Force passing game is almost non-existent, so don’t expect to see a ton of work from the secondary. Starting QB John Busha is only 13/34 for 125 yards with no TDs and 2 interceptions to start the year. And, for a triple option team, he hasn’t delivered on the ground much either, managing only 53 yards on 17 carries. No one on the team has more than 4 catches on the year, and their leading rusher on the season has only gained 75 yards. It has been a rough start to the year offensively.

This opponent is not Utah, and it is comfortably in the shade of the Magnolia Suites. If Baylor can establish the run game, and stay home on their assignments defensively, this one really could get out of hand. This Air Force team is not going to outscore you, they’ll compete by using time of possession and scheme, while playing sound and fundamental defense. But without a passing game, they do not have the ability to compete in any way if their opposition is able to put a good amount of points on the board. This could be a perfect opportunity for a comeback of sorts for the Baylor offense, who struggled on the road in week 2.

Expect to see the Baylor defense challenged early. Some over-pursuit and missed assignments as they adjust to the nuance of the option will allow Air Force to move the ball a little to open the game, but the Bears adjust and settle in. Offensively, Dawson Pendergrass continues to find some space and propels the run game, while Dequan Finn has another opportunity to build rapport with his receivers and grow in his understanding of the offense. By the second half, Air Force has should have no answer for Baylor, and the fans in green… gold…and black? go home happy after seeing a second straight big win at McLane.