Week 2 Preview: Baylor @ Utah

Baylor @ Utah 2024 Preview

Baylor did exactly what they needed to do in week 1, dominating a lesser opponent and walking away with a decisive victory. After the last season and a half, the team, the fans, the program in general, needed a moment where they remembered what it was like to feel like a good football team again. But, you’re only as good as your latest result in college football. Week 2 will truly define the outlook many onlookers have regarding the status of Baylor football as we move deeper into the 2024 season.

The Bears will head to Salt Lake City to take on Big 12 newcomer, Utah. Only, this isn’t a Big 12 game. It’s a non-conference game (unless you’re playing CFB ’25 that is).

A “con-non-con”, if you will.

This game could easily be the toughest Baylor has on its schedule. Utah is ranked 11^th in the country, the presumed Big 12 favorites. They have possibly the best head coach and best quarterback in the conference. They won back to back Pac12 titles in 2021 and 2022, and were possibly a QB injury away from making it a 3-peat. They play at altitude and play with attitude. The Utes truly bring the complete package into most any game they play. This one won’t be cakewalk that Week 1 was for the Bears.

These teams met last season, but the circumstances are wildly different. Baylor was coming off of a loss to Texas State and was down their starting QB. Utah was missing their starting QB. The game was in Waco, and it was HOT. The Bears brought out a different offensive coordinator and defensive playcaller as well. So if you’re thinking that the 20-13 loss from last season can be any barometer for what to expect this Saturday, think again. These are two new teams, under very different circumstances.

So, who are the Utes? They’re tough, defensive minded, and want to run you into the ground. They take after their head coach, Kyle Whittingham. Whittingham is the fifth-oldest coach in college football, yet looks like he could suit up and play for any team in the country right now. He played LB at BYU for his father at LB coach. Whittingham played 4 years, won a WAC DPoY and a Holiday Bowl MVP. He has ingrained his mentality and toughness into this team, and he’s had plenty of time to build the culture. He’s one of the longest tenured coaches in the country, as this will be his 20^th season as the Utes’ head coach. Prior to that, he was the team’s defensive coordinator for 10 years. The Utah program IS Kyle Whittingham.

Not surprisingly, the man loves defense. His teams have been in the top 20 in scoring defense the last 3 seasons. He also loves running the football. Last season, the Utes averaged more yards per game on the ground than they did in the air. Granted, they were missing a key piece in Cam Rising, but we will get to that later. In their first game of the season, Utah rushed for 185 yards on 39 carries against FCS opponent Southern Utah. No one had more than rushes, but 7 players had at least 4 carries. Utah doesn’t just want to beat you, they want to beat you up.

But, as much as they love defense and the ground and pound, the true ace is under center. Super Senior Cam Rising is an easy pick to win comeback player of the year in the Big 12 this year, and depending on how things go over in Boulder, could very well end up being the Big 12 player of the year. Rising has been around the college game forever, just like his coach. He was a member of the 2018 recruiting class. To put that into perspective, NFL stars Micah Parsons, Trevor Lawrence, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Aidan Hutchinson were all in his recruiting class. These are big time NFL Pro Bowlers. CJ Stroud is heading into his second NFL season, and is 2 years younger than Rising. The guy will likely not be phased by anything Baylor throws at him, he’s been around the block, and he’s good.

Rising missed 2023 with an injury, but his 2022 was great. Rising had 3034 yards and 26 TDs on 65% passing. He added 465 yards and 6 TDs on the ground as well. After the knee injury that ended his ’23 campaign, I don’t expect to see him quite put up those dual threat numbers, but he did manage 25 yards on 4 carries in limited action in week 1, so don’t ignore how he can, and will, use his legs against the Bears. Oh, and in that limited action, he did use his arm as well, hitting 10/15 of his passes for 254 yards and 5 TDs. It’s safe to say he’s back.

Another name to watch in this Utah offense is Dijon Stanley. Stanley was on the scout team in 2023, but is regarded as a big time playmaker who the Utes expect to fit into their offense in different ways. Against Southern Utah, he led the team with 6 carries and 34 yards on the ground, but snagged 3 catches for 150 yards and 2 TDs. Baylor will need to be on the lookout for his explosive playmaking ability.

Overall, this Utah team has experience, toughness, home field advantage, and will be motivated to send a message to the rest of the Big 12, one that says we are here to own this place. Can the Bears push back against that?

To take on the task, Baylor will look to improve in some key areas after the Tarleton State victory. While I would never complain about a 45-3 victory, there were definitely areas of improvement for the Bears that they will need to fix if they want to take down a much tougher foe in Utah.

The running game must be effective. Utah wants to control the game. The way you combat that is to control the ball yourself. Baylor struggled to win one on one battles in run blocking in week 1, so they will need to find a way to improve that and open some lanes for the RBs if they want to keep Rising and company off the field. Next will be third downs. It’s cliché, but it’s true. Third down is everything in football. To beat a top school, you must convert third downs. Every new series is time off the clock, time for your defense to rest, and time for their defense to work. And on the other end, the Baylor defense must get third down stops. If Utah gives you the opportunity to get off the field, take it.

Beyond anything else though, I believe this Baylor team will go as far as their QB will take them. Dequan Finn had flashes of greatness in the Bears’ opener, but he must limit mistakes and be willing to take off if he has a running lane. Utah is going to be disciplined on defense, they will do everything they can to stop the run. Finn has the ability to create chaos, something mobile QBs can deploy to take down the strongest and best coached defenses. Baylor has the weapons to beat this Utah team, but the entire team will have to perform to pull it off.

From a coaching perspective, I expect to see some much different things than we saw against Tarleton. Defensively, look for Aranda to deploy some more exotic things to stop Rising. Unique pass rushes, fun blitz packages, confusing secondary set-ups. Aranda is calling the plays now, and the last time he was doing that his defense won a Natty. Offensively, the playbook should really open up. Look for plenty of screens in the passing game to try to slow down Utah’s aggressiveness and to keep them off balance. But, like I said above, Baylor’s chances really might come down to the improvisation skills of Finn when the Utah defense forces a play to breakdown.

If Aranda maximizes our defense’s potential, this could be a low scoring rock fight like last season, but I don’t think anyone is going to keep Rising down for 4 quarters. The Bears will absolutely need to score some points in this game. It’s an important one for Aranda, but not a required win. Baylor has to look like they belong, and I believe they can do that. But, no one in Baylor Nation will complain if they do go beyond and take this thing. Make some big plays on defense, create some offensive chaos, and you never know how it may look heading home on Saturday night.