That was painful. Though last week’s game does give us a better outlook on this team’s identity and strengths moving forward, it was the most painful Baylor Football experience in recent memory. Sawyer looked great, the D-Line was dominant, WRs made plays, and more than anything Baylor looked like a functioning football team. Until we didn’t (thank you… dude in my living room who said “it’s over” with 30 seconds left). We could ask many questions, but the biggest should be how Baylor will respond emotionally and physically after the heartbreaker. Emotionally, it’s hard to tell, but practically, here are 3 keys to success vs No. 22 BYU.

1) Consistent pressure on Retzlaff

BYU thumped K-State 38-9, improving to 12-2 at night since 2022 (vampire mormons?). Though the score looks as if BYU completely dominated this one, they really did not, Avery Johnson & co. simply played horrible. Retzlaff posted a meager 149 yards in this one, and took two sacks. BYU didn’t complete a pass over 25 yards, and has struggled with chunk plays in each of their first 4 games so far this year. These struggles haven’t affected them yet, but they have only played K-State in a very flukey game, as well as 3 horrible defenses in SMU, Wyoming, and Southern Illinois. Retzlaff is a very below average QB against the blitz, with a sub 50% completion rate and no touchdowns when matched up against one, but the two power 5 teams (SMU and K-State) they have played struggled to wrap him up in the backfield. Instead of drive and perhaps game altering sacks, BYU has been able to keep drives going even if Retzlaff doesn’t take advantage of the blitz. Baylor has to hit paydirt more than 4 times (8 sacks on Shedeur Saturday) even with the possibility of Garmon Randolph not playing. Without whatever goes in the water over at Lavell Stadium in Provo, Baylor will stifle the BYU passing game with a consistent presence in the backfield (and possibly a “I’m in your walls” type blow from Ma’ae). 

Excellent concept by Dave and execution by Linton against perhaps the best QB in CFB.

2) Separation against Man Coverage

I genuinely cannot remember a time after Blake Shapen’s linsanity run during the 2021 B12 championship where I saw as many pure plays made by our guys at Wide Reciever than I did vs. Colorado. Don’t get me wrong, Sawyer played fantastic and placed the ball almost perfectly when he needed to, but other than the Ashtyn drop (a tear fell down my face as I wrote that) we didn’t make any 10+ yard catches that were uncontested . The Monaray fade, the Hal fades, and the Ketron fade were all either placed on the back shoulder or were made in full extension. That won’t fly vs BYU, their defense is very, very good. Don’t get me wrong, Colorado’s defense played much better than expected, but they generally stacked the box and dared us to try and beat them over the top, and we did. Other than Travis Island, BYU’s secondary is much more aggressive and much more fundamentally sound. They give a mix of looks unlike man-heavy Utah and Colorado, but absolutely fly to the football. One play comes to mind vs. KSU. Johnson completed a screen pass to the flat that looked good for 15 yards on a 3rd and 10, that is until Tanner Wall missiled himself at the WR stopping him 2 yards short of the marker. Starting CBs Robinson and Collins are both incredibly experienced and polished, and the same goes with safeties Tanner Wall and Talan Alfrey. We aren’t going to be able to throw up prayers like last game, or at least not as our only form of offensive success. Wide receivers HAVE to get off the line of scrimmage and find holes in the zone or do something other than run fast (looking at you, Monterey) and expect to be wide open. This is not 2014 anymore, DBs and linebackers are very quick as well. Spav has to call plays that utilize our speed and get our shiftier players moving in the middle of the field. 

Note how this route was the 3rd read on this play in a stick concept and the ball was still thrown into fairly tight coverage. This is “good”, but should not be normal this week.

3) Get RBs in Space

It is no secret. This run game, though talented, is nothing compared to our “RVO” style teams from ‘21 and ‘22. Even in the game against Air Force in which we averaged 6.1 yards per carry, we struggled on picking up 4 or 5 easy yards against the even box on 1st and 2nd down. Against Colorado… don’t even think about it. Their DEs and OLBs beat us to the edge on practically every snap and stymied our run game (other than Vanilla Vick, that is) from the first whistle to the last. Dominic averaged 3.1 while Bryson averaged a mere 2.1 yards per carry. These aren’t exactly the numbers we need to keep our offense consistent throughout a contest.

After 4 games, it’s clear we cannot trust our offensive line to hold up for our talented backfield when stacked up against an athletic front and smart linebackers. This game, Spavital MUST find new ways to get our RBs the ball in space, much like the 19 yard swing pass to DR in the 1st Quarter. This way, BYU’s LBs will have to worry about stretching from each sideline, monitoring Sawyer’s rushing ability, and keep an eye on slot playmakers working the middle of the field. In theory, this would open up the door to finally have a successful game on the ground against a fairly weak run defense stretched too far across the field.

This will also depend on how often we can complete 4-7 yard passes pretty much at will. If these both happen, we will likely see a ‘21 esque route of the Cougars. Likely though, one or both of these keys will not live up to expectations and Baylor Fans will end up with shorter nails than they had on Friday night. It’s going to be a good one! Let’s hope the bears succeed in these three areas and pick up their first ranked win at home in quite some time.