Matchup: No. 12 Baylor Bears (1-1) v. Sam Houston State Bearkats (1-1)

Time: Tuesday, November 12, 2024, @ 7:00 PM CT

Place: Foster Pavilion, Waco, Texas

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Big Picture

This will be the Bears’ home opener as they’ll look to make it back-to-back wins after beating ranked Arkansas over the weekend.

The Bearkats are coached by Chris Mudge who is in his 15th with the program (and 2nd as head coach). Mudge was an assistant under Rick Barnes at Texas back when guys like Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge were there.

Sam Houston has had a winning record in 11 consecutive seasons including seven 20+ win seasons. However, the Bearkats haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2010. Their team is led by a three-pronged backcourt featuring a returning star, a Big XII transfer, and an incoming freshman. This season, they lost their opener to Nevada before blowing out Tarleton State over the weekend.

Kats’ Strengths

• Three-point shooting. Through their first 2 games, Sam Houston is 24/51 (47%) from deep. That’s good for 12th nationally in 3P%.

• Offensive rebounding. In the Bearkats’ first couple of games, they have come down with offensive boards on nearly 38% of their missed shots (83rd percentile nationally).

Kats’ Weaknesses

• Turnovers. The Bearkats are turning the ball over on 17.5% of their offensive possessions (leading to 16 points off turnovers per game thus far).

• Fouling. Sam Houston has been called for 24.5 fouls per game (7th percentile nationally), leading to 25 free throw attempts allowed per game.

Players to Watch

Marcus Boykin (Guard, No. 5, Senior, 6’1” 190 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (2 games): 12.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 2.5 SPG on 57/25/73 splits. Boykin is an old-school, pass-first point guard. His coaching staff sometimes has to encourage him to be more aggressive in taking shots.

Dorian Finister (Guard, No. 2, Junior, 6’5” 190 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (2 games): 13.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.0 BPG on 45/57/80 splits. The Kansas State transfer never saw much of the court in his 2 seasons in Manhattan. He is fitting right in with his new team, leading the Bearkats in scoring and rebounding thus far.

Lamar Wilkerson (Guard, No. 3, Senior, 6’5” 210 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats: 13.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 1.4 APG in 31 games played (all starts; 29.7 MPG) on 43/35/83 splits. After earning All-CUSA honors last season, Wilkerson returns for a senior campaign in which he we will be relied upon heavily, especially on the offensive end.

Cameron Huefner (Forward, No. 25, Senior, 6’8” 230 lbs.): Last 2 Seasons’ Stats: 8.9 PPG and 3.0 RPG on 41/38/80 splits. The Australian native is a stretch four who helps with the team’s spacing. In SHSU’s last game, Huefner rolled his ankle in the 2nd half and I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses this matchup with Baylor.

Kalifa Sakho (Center, No. 34, Senior, 6’11” 240 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (2 games): 4.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.0 SPG, and 2.0 BPG on 36/NA/33 splits. The Utah State transfer is the team’s starting big man. His statistical production has been underwhelming thus far, but if Huefner misses time, that could lead to increased opportunities for the French native.

Kian Scroggins (Forward, No. 40, Super Senior, 6’7” 240 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (2 games): 11.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG on 56/50/73 splits. He doesn’t have the same range as Huefner, but he’d be the logical choice to take Huefner’s starting spot if his teammate is forced to miss with injury. Scroggins has been a beast at getting to the FT line this season. He’s averaging 7.5 FTAs per game (96th percentile nationally).

Josiah Hammons (Guard, No. 57, Super Senior, 6’2” 190 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats (with Incarnate Word): 12.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 1.2 APG in 30 games played (23 starts; 29.5 MPG) on 37/36/83 splits. This Chicago native is a three-point specialist (nearly 90% of his shots this season are from beyond the arc).

Brennen Burns (Guard, No. 0, Super Senior, 5’10” 180 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (2 games): 6.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, and 6.5 APG on 67/100/100 splits. The Oklahoma native serves as the team’s backup point guard, taking over primary passing responsibilities when Boykin goes to the bench.

Predictions

Key(s) to the Game

• Attack downhill. The Bearkats have sent their opponents to the charity stripe a lot through their first 2 games. Drawing contact, getting their starters into foul trouble, and getting to score with the clock stopped should be a recipe for success for the Bears.

• Start fast. Letting a team like this hang around early could be dangerous for the Bears. They need to come out aggressive and keep their foot on the pedal throughout.

Player of the Game: V.J. Edgecombe (Baylor) - Edgecombe is off to a slow start as a shooter (he’s 5/23 from the field [22%] and 1/10 from deep). Still, his eye-popping athleticism has made the highlight reel more than once. Against a mid-major opponent, I expect V.J. to find his footing offensively and put someone on a poster.

Final Score: Baylor wins 91 - 73. Sam Houston State is a deceptively good opponent. Their three-point shooting ability could give them a chance to hang around throughout. Still, I expect the Bears to maintain a comfortable lead down the stretch, even if they don’t fully pull away. You don’t really think that we’re going to lose our home opener to a team that doesn’t even know how to spell their own name, do you? Sic em!