Matchup: No. 15 Baylor Bears (5-2) @ No. 25 UConn Huskies (5-3)

Time: Tuesday, December 4, 2024 @ 5:30 PM CT

Place: Gampel Pavillion, Storrs, Connecticut

Where to Watch: FS1

Big Picture

The early part of the season has had its highs and lows for the Bears who have dominated the cupcakes on their schedule and split their contests against higher quality opponents. Baylor enters this game after demolishing New Orleans last week, just before Thanksgiving.

While Feast Week was something of a mixed bag for Baylor (featuring a glorious 18-point comeback win on a buzzer-beater in double overtime and also a humbling 15-point loss to Tennessee), it was an outright disaster for UConn who went to Maui as the AP No. 2 team in the nation and after losing to three unranked opponents and finishing 8th out of 8 teams in that event, are now considered by many to be undeserving of a place in the Top 25. This game represents a huge get-right opportunity for the Huskies. For Baylor, this game may not seem as daunting as it did a week or 2 ago.

UConn has won back-to-back national titles and had high hopes of contending for a third straight title before stumbling in Hawaii last week. They need to get back on track in the worst of ways.

Huskies’ Style

• UConn plays at a very slow pace (25th percentile nationally).

• The Huskies take a ton of three-pointers (93rd percentile nationally in 3PA Rate) and shots in the paint and at the rim (49% of their shots come from these 2 areas).

• UConn’s offense grades much better than their defense so far. KenPom ranks them 7th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (84th on defense).

• Tarleton’s defense primarily uses man-to-man.

Huskies’ Strengths

• Ball movement. The Huskies are averaging nearly 21 assists per game which ranks 2nd nationally.

• Rim protection. UConn is averaging 7.4 blocks per game this season which ranks 2nd nationally.

Huskies’ Weaknesses

• Fouls. The Huskies are getting called for nearly 20 fouls per game (ranks 310th nationally).

• No freebies. Not only does UConn commit a lot of fouls, they also struggle getting to the charity stripe (their FT Attempt Rate is in the 33rd percentile nationally).

Players to Watch

Hassan Diarra (Guard, No. 10, Super Senior, 6’2” 200 lbs.): This Season’s Stats as a Starter (last 3 games): 9.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 5.3 APG, and 1.7 SPG on 59/63/67 splits. The native of Queens is in his 5th collegiate season and third with the Huskies (he spent his first 2 seasons with Texas A&M). Last season, Diarra appeared in 40 games for the national champions. Over the last few games, Diarra has moved into the starting lineup.

Solo Ball (Guard, No. 1, Sophomore, 6’3” 190 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (8 games): 12.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG, and 1.9 APG on 51/46/67 splits. The Virginia native is an off-ball guard who is 2nd on the team in scoring and 3P shooting.

Liam McNeeley (Forward, No. 30, Freshman, 6’7” 210 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (8 games): 12.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 1.9 APG on 41/35/80 splits. The Texas native is a potential one-and-done guy. He is a three-level scorer and above-average defender. In the absence of Karaban, expect much of UConn’s offense to flow through McNeeley. It is worth noting though, that McNeeley has been playing through a hip injury recently.

Samson Johnson (Center, No. 35, Senior, 6’10” 230 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (8 games): 6.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 2.0 BPG on 80/NA/67 splits. The Togo native has started every game this season for UConn. He is a poor rebounder for his size and doesn’t contribute much offensively. Still, his shot blocking ability make him a valuable part of the Huskies’ starting lineup.

Tarris Reed, Jr. (Center, No. 5, Junior, 6’10” 260 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (8 games): 11.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 1.5 BPG on 77/NA/70 splits. The Michigan transfer serves as the backup big. He is, of the team’s 2 primary big men, the far better scorer and rebounder. He lacks some of the quickness of Johnson and isn’t as effective defensively, but the pair make an effective one-two punch down low.

Note: Alex Karaban, arguably the team’s best player, will be unavailable due to injury.

Predictions

Key(s) to the Game

• Weather the storm. This will be as hostile of an environment as Baylor will face all season. It is critical for Baylor to not let the crowd and a potential hot start from UConn spiral and turn into a big deficit.

• Drive the ball to the rim. This is a team that fouls a lot and is playing shorthanded. I’d also love to see Dan Hurley erupt and give us some technical foul free throws if his squad gets called for fouls early and often.

Player of the Game: Jeremy Roach (Baylor) - I think UConn’s frontcourt will cause Omier some headaches and with Edgecombe either not available or not at 100%, Roach and Nunn will need to step up. I expect to see the version of Roach that lifted the Bears over St. John’s in the Bahamas to make another appearance tonight in Connecticut.

Final Score: Baylor wins 81 - 80. Yes, Baylor is playing the two-time defending national champs on the road. Yes, it will be an incredibly hostile environment. Yes, Dan Hurley and his team are going to be fired up and focused for this game. Yes, Baylor’s performances against Gonzaga and Tennessee are cause for concern. Yes, V.J. Edgecombe’s injury situation is scary. But c’mon, I can’t pick against my own team against a squad that lost to Dayton by 18 points last week. This one will come down to the wire (much like the St. John’s game), and we are the more battle-tested team (they still haven’t faced a ranked opponent this season, let alone beat one). Sic em!