Matchup: No. 8 Baylor Bears v. Tarleton State Texans

Time: Sunday, November 17, 2024, @ 7:00 PM CT

Place: Foster Pavilion, Waco, Texas

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Big Picture

The Bears have now won back-to-back games after bludgeoning Sam Houston State in their home opener this week in a game where Baylor had SEVEN players score in double figures, including V.J. Edgecombe and Norchad Omier each of whom posted a double-double.

The Texans are still searching for their first win against a D-I opponent in the young season. They’re coming off a 31-point victory against Tabor (NAIA). Before that, Tarleton had lost their first 3 games by an average of over 27 points, including a 29-point drubbing by Sam Houston State.

Tarleton is coming off a 25-win campaign, their only winning season since joining Division I in 2020. They are coached by Billy Gillespie the former head coach at Kentucky, Texas A&M, UTEP, and Texas Tech (and was an assistant coach at Baylor under Harry Miller in the 90s).

Texans’ Style

• Expect the Texans to play a lot of 4-guard lineups and try to turn up the tempo. They are in the 83rd percentile nationally in pace of play.

• Tarleton takes a ton of mid-range shots. Over 30% of their shots come from this area (the D-I average is 11%). They rank 354th nationally in three-point attempts per game and get very few shots (less than 19%) at the rim.

• The Texans are off to a horrifically slow start offensively. KenPom ranks them 306th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Their defensive performance has only been marginally better.

• Tarleton’s defense primarily uses man-to-man and will frequently press off made shots.

Texans’ Strengths

• Getting to the free throw line. The Texans are in the 89th percentile nationally in FT Attempt Rate and are drawing an average of 21.3 personal fouls per game (84th percentile nationally).

• Rim protection. Tarleton is averaging 4.3 blocks per game (72nd percentile nationally). Edgecombe and Omier will put those stats to the test.

Texans’ Weaknesses

• Turnovers. Tarleton is averaging 21.5 turnovers per game (which ranks 354th out of 360 D-I teams). They are coughing up the ball on 26.6% of their offensive possessions.

• Defensive Rebounding. The Texans have really struggled on the defensive glass, ranking 357th nationally in Defensive Rebound Rate. They are allowing an offensive rebound on over 43% of their opponents’ missed shots.

Players to Watch

Bubu Benjamin (Guard, No. 11, Sophomore, 6’7” 200 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (4 games): 16.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.5 SPG on 50/25/79 splits. The Canadian native has been the team’s best player to start the season. He is elite in transition and is a great offensive rebounder (98th percentile nationally in offensive rebounds per game). He also plays a ridiculous amount of minutes. He is averaging 38.0 MPG the teams 3 games against D-I opponents.

Nick Krass (Guard, No. 21, Sophomore, 6’3” 200 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (4 games): 7.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 2.3 SPG on 39/22/63 splits. The Oregon State transfer is a disruptive defender and is adept at drawing fouls (he is in the 93rd percentile nationally in fouls drawn per FGA).

Chris Mpaka (Forward, No. 23, Junior, 6’6” 230 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (4 games): 10.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 2.3 BPG on 50/NA/59 splits. The Congo native is an undersized big man, but he plays extremely hard down low. He often has to front larger guys in the paint.

Caleb Evans (Guard, No. 15, Freshman, 6’4” 180 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (3 games): 8.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 1.3 APG on 59/50/65. The Houston native is the first player off the bench for Tarleton this season.

Matt Krass (Guard, No. 1, Freshman, 6’2” 190 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (4 games): 7.8 PPG on 44/58/100 splits. The younger brother of starter, Nick Krass, Matt is a 3P specialist.

Predictions

Key(s) to the Game

• Stay out of foul trouble. The charity stripe can be an equalizer in games where there is a big talent disparity. Don’t give them too many trips to the line and limit your starters’ playing time by getting into foul trouble.

• Be patient and hunt good shots. If they Bears have good shot selection, they should blow Tarleton out of the water.

Player of the Game: Norchad Omier (Baylor) - The Miami transfer is a walking double-double and should be able to bully his way to plenty of high-percentage shots in this one. Add in some second-chance points and Omier could be poised for a big game.

Final Score: Baylor wins 101 - 64. If the Bears are even half as good in this one as they’ve been in the last couple of games, they should absolutely crush the Texans. This is Baylor’s final game before feast week when the team will travel to the Bahamas to take on St. John’s and either Tennessee or Virginia. Hopefully guys like Wright and Asemota get some extended minutes in this one. Sic em!