Matchup: No. 13 Baylor Bears (3-1) v. No. 22 St. John’s Red Storm (4-0)

Time: Thursday, November 21, 2024, @ 6:00 PM CT

Place: Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, Bahamas

Where to Watch: CBSSN

Big Picture

Following their dismal season opener against Gonzaga, the Bears have now won three consecutive games, including knocking off a ranked Arkansas team and then scoring 100+ points in back-to-back games for the first time in 35 years. Baylor now finds themselves in the Caribbean, competing in the Baha Mar Hoops - Bahamas Championship.

St. John’s comes into this game undefeated with their average margin of victory being over 22 points. Of course, they haven’t played a single game away from home and their toughest opponent thus far has been New Mexico (ranked 57th nationally in KenPom). This game represents their first true test.

The Red Storm is now in the 2nd season of the Rick Pitino era and is coming off a 20-win season (their first since 2019). They’ll be looking to make it back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2019 (when Chris Mullin was the coach).

Storm’s Style

• Expect the Storm to play fast. More than 26% of their points this season come in transition (98th percentile nationally).

• St. John’s doesn’t take many three-pointers. Only 35% of their field goal attempts have been from beyond the arc this season (26th percentile nationally). They have been excellent on mid-range shots so far (converting 44% of those attempts, the national average FG% on mid-range shots is 35%).

• The Storm’s easy early schedule has led to them having elite ratings on both ends of the floor. They appear to be slightly better defensively than offensively, but this a very balanced opponent.

Storm’s Strengths

• Rim protection. St. John’s is in the 97th percentile nationally in Block Rate.

• Offensive rebounding. The Storm is coming down with an offensive board on 39% of their missed shots (92nd percentile nationally).

Storm’s Weaknesses

• Turnovers. The Storm is averaging 13.5 giveaways per game (37th percentile nationally).

• Defensive Rebounding. For as good as St. John’s has been on the offensive glass, they’ve struggled rebounding on the other end. Their opponents are getting more than 20% of their points on second-chance opportunities (6th percentile nationally).

Players to Watch

Deivon Smith (Guard, No. 5, Super Senior, 6’0” 180 lbs.): Last 2 Seasons’ Stats (partially with Utah): 12.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 6.9 APG, and 1.3 SPG in 32 games played (24 starts; 29.6 MPG) on 46/39/67 splits. The veteran guard is on his 4th team in 5 collegiate seasons, having previously played for Utah, Georgia Tech, and Mississippi State. He is a do-it-all point guard. Smith has been excellent this season scoring in transition, setting up his teammates in the halfcourt, and coming up with takeaways defensively. The one thing he’s struggled with thus far is turnovers (he’s in the 21st percentile of players in Turnover Rate).

Kadary Richmond (Guard, No. 1, Super Senior, 6’5” 200 lbs.): Last 4 Seasons’ Stats (primarily with Seton Hall): 11.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, and 1.9 SPG in 98 games played (88 starts; 29.0 MPG) on 43/34/75 splits. The Brooklyn native is in his first season with the Storm after 3 seasons with Seton Hall (and a freshman year with Syracuse). He is a quality secondary ball handler and has been elite at grabbing offensive boards (he’s in the 98th percentile of players in Offensive Rebounds per Game). Like Smith, Richmond has turned it over a lot this season (he’s in the 5th percentile of players in Turnovers per Game).

Aaron Scott (Forward, No. 0, Senior, 6’7” 210 lbs.): Last 2 Seasons’ Stats (partially with North Texas): 10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 1.2 BPG in 38 games played (37 starts; 29.2 MPG) on 43/36/79 splits. The Houston-area native spent his first 3 collegiate seasons with the Mean Green before arriving at St. John’s this season. He is a 3-and-D wing and has been very disruptive defensively without committing a ton of fouls. He has also been very effective scoring on fast break opportunities.

RJ Luis, Jr. (Forward, No. 12, Junior, 6’7” 220 lbs.): Career Stats (partially with UMass): 11.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 APG, and 1.1 SPG in 54 games played (23 starts; 22.1 MPG) on 44/28/75 splits. The Miami native has been the team’s best player this season. KenPom has him ranked 6th in their National Player of the Year rankings at this point. He is in the 98th percentile (or better) of players nationally in scoring per 40 minutes, offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, and paint scoring. The only downside to his performance in the first part of the season is that he occasionally gets himself into foul trouble.

Zuby Ejiofor (Forward, No. 24, Junior, 6’9” 240 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (4 games): 8.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.5 BPG on 46/33/63 splits. The Garland, Texas native is a former Kansas transfer. Ejiofor has been an excellent shot-blocker this season (he’s in the 98th percentile of players blocked shots). He has, like several of his teammates, struggled with turnovers in the early goings (9th percentile of players in Turnovers per Game).

Simeon Wilcher (Guard, No. 7, Sophomore, 6’4” 190 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (4 games): 11.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, and 1.0 SPG on 59/30/88 splits. The New Jersey native is essentially the team’s sixth starter. Like several of his teammates, he is at his best in the open floor (almost half of his points this season have come in transition).

Brady Dunlap (Forward, No. 44, Sophomore, 6’7” 190 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (4 games): 10.0 PPG and 2.5 RPG on 67/57/100 splits. The California native is a long wing who can light it up from deep. He leads the team in 3PA Rate, 3P%, and (naturally) made three-pointers.

Predictions

Key(s) to the Game

• Sprint back every time. Keeping St. John’s out of transition will be key to slowing down their offense.

• Battle of the boards. Both teams could have a big day in terms of second-chance points. If the Bears will block out on defense and cash in on any offensive boards they’re able to get, that could go a long way in determining the winner of this contest.

Player of the Game: V.J. Edgecombe (Baylor) - If you don’t think the Bahamian star is going to dominate in what is effectively a homecoming game for him, I don’t know what to tell you.

Final Score: Baylor wins 83 - 76. Both teams come into this game hot. However, the Bears are battle-tested, having already played multiple ranked opponents away from home. That, combined with Baylor’s incredible talent and good coaching, should enable them to come out on top in yet another Top 25 showdown. This one will probably come down to the final few minutes, but give me the Bears. Sic em!