Matchup: No. 8 Baylor Bears v. No. 16 Arkansas Razorbacks

Time: Saturday, November 9, 2024, @ 6:30 PM CT

Place: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Where to Watch: ESPNU

Big Picture

This neutral site showdown between ranked programs comes on the heels of Baylor’s season-opener against Gonzaga. It will be Arkansas’s 2nd game on the season after beating Lipscomb at home in their season opener.

Arkansas saw their old head coach leave for USC, but they certainly feel like they upgraded in stealing John Calipari from Kentucky (leading to UK’s failed attempt to steal Scott Drew from Baylor) obligatory Mi Casita reference:

Coach Cal didn’t just bring his suits and hair gel to Fayetteville, he also brought 3 Kentucky transfers, plus a couple of other transfers and a handful of freshmen players. All this is to say, Kentucky will look totally different than they have in recent seasons.

The Razorbacks will be hoping that their big-name head coaching hire and massive infusion of NIL investment (as evidenced by their dominant recruiting/transfer class), will be enough to not just get Arkansas back into the NCAA Tournament following last season’s disappointing 16-17 finish, they’ll be expecting to get back to the level of competitiveness that saw them make back to back Elite Eights (including their loss to Baylor in 2021).

Hogs’ Strengths

• Turnover Creation. The length and athleticism that Arkansas brings to the table makes them very disruptive and allows them to get out in transition. Against Lipscomb, they forced 19 turnovers and were +18 in fastbreak scoring (in a game they only won by 16).

• Versatility to play bigger and smaller lineups due to an excess of talented wings and a pair of quality post players. It will be interesting to see the extent to which each of these coaches tries to match the other in terms of lineup composition.

Hogs’ Weaknesses

• Three-point shooting. The Hogs struggled from beyond the arc in their exhibition games against Kansas and TCU before shooting just 4/19 (21%) from deep against Lipscomb. They have capable shooters, but are off to a slow start on that front.

• Lack of ball movement. Looking at the roster and the likely major contributors, it’s hard to imagine that this team is going to be effective at moving the ball without turning the ball over. Trapping, doubling, and hedging could exploit this potential weakness.

Players to Watch

D.J. Wagner (Guard, No. 21, Sophomore, 6’4” 190 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats (with Kentucky): 9.9 PPG, 1.9 RPG, and 3.3 APG in 29 games played (28 starts; 25.8 MPG) on 41/29/77 splits. Wagner followed his coach to Fayetteville after making the SEC All-Freshman team with the Wildcats last season. He is arguably the only true point guard on the roster and will likely be asked to facilitate the offense as much or more than he’ll be asked to score.

Boogie Fland (Guard, No. 2, Freshman, 6’2” 170 lbs.): Fland was a top 25 prospect nationally and was originally committed to Kentucky before Coach Cal took the Arkansas job. The New York native is a shoot-first combo guard who is accustomed to playing off-ball. He probably needs to add some weight before he’ll be ready to be a major contributor on the defensive end or as a rebounder, but expect him to pull up from anywhere and everywhere on offense.

Johnell Davis (Guard, No. 1, Super Senior, 6’4” 210 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats (with FAU): 18.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.9 APG, and 1.4 SPG in 34 games played (all starts; 32.2 MPG) on 48/41/86 splits. The reigning AAC Player of the Year appears poised to lead the Hogs in scoring. He can get buckets from anywhere on the floor. He’s a nightmare matchup and contributes in every facet of the game. Limiting him should be the top priority of every opponent Arkansas has this season.

Adou Thiero (Forward, No. 3, Junior, 6’8” 220 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats (with Kentucky): 7.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 1.1 BPG in 25 games played (19 starts; 21.4 MPG) on 49/32/80 splits. Another guy who followed his head coach, Thiero will likely be a prominent part of the rotation for Arkansas. He is one of those Swiss Army Knife guys who can do a little bit of everything on the floor.

Zvonimir Ivisic (Center, No. 44, Sophomore, 7’1” 250 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats (with Kentucky): 5.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 1.3 BPG in 15 games played (no starts; 11.7 MPG) on 58/38/77 splits. The Croatian native has earned a spot in the starting rotation for Coach Cal and has a soft touch for a legit 7-footer. His versatility on both ends makes him hard to match up with.

Trevon Brazile (Forward, No. 4, Junior, 6’9” 220 lbs.): Last 2 Seasons’ Stats: 9.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 1.2 BPG on 49/36/69 splits. Brazile’s return to Arkansas was something of a surprise this last offseason, but a welcome one for Calipari. He has the athleticism to switch onto smaller players defensively and to posterize anyone brave enough to challenge him at the rim.

Jonas Aidoo (Center, No. 9, Super Senior, 6’11” 240 lbs.): Last Season’s Stats (with Tennessee): 11.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, and 1.8 BPG in 36 games played (all starts; 24.8 MPG) on 52/NA/63 splits. Aidoo was a highly sought-after transfer who supposedly seriously considered coming to Baylor this offseason. Instead, the big man wound up with the Razorbacks and will provide them with some of the best rim protection among power conference teams. Aidoo has been limited in recent weeks due to injury, getting less than 7 minutes of action against Lipscomb.

Karter Knox (Forward, No. 11, Freshman, 6’6” 220 lbs.): The 4-star prospect and younger brother NBA player, Kevin Knox, is a slashing wing. He’s more physical than he is quick. As such, he is not the most effective defender on the perimeter. He has a sweet stepback three-point shot but can also finish strong at the rim.

Billy Richmond III (Guard, No. 24, Freshman, 6’5” 200 lbs.): The Tennessee native is an off-ball guard who attacks downhill and has a versatile skill set. I wouldn’t expect him to shoot it much, especially in the early part of his first collegiate season, but he can contribute in plenty of other areas of the game.

Predictions

Key(s) to the Game

• Take care of the ball. Baylor cannot afford to be sloppy on offense and let Arkansas get easy points in transition off turnovers. Ball security will be huge.

• Block out. This area of the game is important partly because Baylor did such a poor job on the glass against Gonzaga, but also because Arkansas was repeatedly caught fouling in rebounding situations against Lipscomb. Getting their stars into foul trouble and creating second-chance opportunities for our offense (and denying them the same) would be huge.

Player of the Game: Jeremy Roach (Baylor) - This is a game where the Bears are lucky a veteran guard like Roach who can both create his own shot and set up his teammates with good looks. I expect a performance from Roach similar to his 2nd Round game last season when he had 15 points and 7 assists (and no turnovers).

Final Score: Baylor wins 72 - 68. Yes, I blew it with the Gonzaga game. You can place all the blame on me. Still, Arkansas doesn’t have the chemistry or experience of the Zags, nor should they have a major homecourt advantage in Dallas. I like the Bears to bounce back here and play a much more complete game than what we saw (or slept through) on Monday. Plus, I’m pretty sure that it is scientifically impossible for us to lose wearing these uniforms for the first time. Sic em!