Matchup: No. 26 Baylor Bears (5-3) v. Abilene Christian Wildcats (6-3)

Time: Monday, December 9, 2024, @ 7:00 PM CT

Place: Foster Pavilion, Waco, Texas

Where to Watch: CBSSN

Big Picture

The Bears enter this game after coming up short against UConn. Baylor now has 3 losses before Christmas for the first time since 2018. To be fair, the Preseason Top 4 teams in the country have combined for 10 losses already (6 of those being to unranked teams). The Bears will be looking to get back on track and build momentum heading into the holidays and Big 12 play.

The Wildcats have won back-to-back games. Their best wins this season have come against Texas State and New Mexico State. Their losses have come against Middle Tennessee State, Kennesaw State, and Montana State.

ACU is coming off back-to-back losing campaigns. They’ll be looking to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021 when the Wildcats knocked out the 3-seed Longhorns in the First Round.

Wildcats’ Style

• The Wildcats play at a slow pace (32nd percentile nationally).

• Abilene Christian takes very few 3-point shots (only 27% of their shot attempts are from deep).

Wildcats’ Strengths

• Getting to the free throw line. The Wildcats rank 4th nationally in FT Attempt Rate.

• Takeaways. ACU ranks 27th nationally in steals per game this season.

Wildcats’ Weaknesses

• Defensive Rebounding. Abilene Christian’s opponents this season are in the 99th percentile nationally in second-chance points.

• Fouling. The Wildcats are getting called for more than 21 fouls per game this season (3rd percentile nationally).

Players to Watch

Leonardo Bettiol (Forward, No. 3, Junior, 6’8” 210 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (9 games): 15.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 1.1 APG on 62/25/79 splits. The Italian native is the team’s leading scorer this season. Given the Wildcats’ reluctance to shoot from the outside, having a physical low-post scorer like him is invaluable.

Quion Williams (Guard, No. 5, Junior, 6’4” 200 lbs.): This Season’s Stats (8 games): 14.1 PPG 5.3 RPG, 3.1 APG, and 1.0 SPG on 51/18/64 splits. The Oklahoma State transfer is off to a strong start with his new team, leading the Wildcats in assists and rebounding.

Hunter-Jack Madden (Guard, No. 21, Senior, 6’1” 180 lbs.): Last 2 Seasons’ Stats: 11.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.1 SPG on 39/39/83 splits. The Australian native is the team’s 3P specialist, accounting for nearly 35% of the team’s 3P attempts this season.

Predictions

Key(s) to the Game

• Crash the Boards. Dominating the rebounding margin should allow Baylor a larger margin for error.

• Stay out of foul trouble. In addition to injuries, fouling limited the playing time of several key contributors against UConn and the Bears need to improve in that area..

Player of the Game: Robert Wright III (Baylor): If you haven’t already, it is time to buy into all of the hype generated by this freshman guard through the first 8 games. He is leading the Bears in assists and is 2nd on the team in scoring, despite not having started a single game yet. If injuries keep piling up, Wright’s production should only increase.

Final Score: Baylor wins 85 - 67. The Bears will use this opportunity to bounce back after their disappointing trip to Connecticut in what should be the first of at least 3 straight wins heading into conference play. The final score may not be as lopsided as the team’s earlier buy-games, because ACU is likely going to limit the total number of possessions in the game and also because Baylor is a pretty banged-up team right now. Still, it’ll be nice to get back into the win column (knocks on wood). Sic em!